Now according to most polls in the United States this election is very close and could go either way so let's unpack those polls and what to make of them for that we're turning now to Kaylee Rogers she's a polling reporter with the New York Times and she's also done reporting work as a senior reporter with CBC News good to have you back with CBC Kaylee thanks for making time for us yeah thanks for having me all right now you're with the New York Times this is your beat the polls make it make sense Kaye because the polls were wrong in 2016 very very wrong and I think really since 2016 there is a great deal of skepticism when we look at those numbers and what the percentages are how should we feel about polls in 2024 right what a year to be the polling reporter at the New York Times I will say you know 2016 I think a lot of people remember that election as being the year that the polls were way off and it's true that the state level polls that year had a lot of misses and that's partly why there was some confusion over who was in the lead going into election day but the national level polls actually weren't that bad they were off by a couple points but if you remember Hillary Clinton actually did win the popular vote that year she lost the election of course but that was because of the Electoral College um she did win the popular vote and and so the polls showing her and the lead there actually weren't that off uh 2020 was actually slightly more off the the support for President Biden was overestimated but people kind of forget that a little bit because Biden did go on to win so they're like oh he was in the lead and he won so the poll were right um the reality is that polls are always off a little bit one way or the other there's just no way to perfectly nail it when you're trying to pull a group of people that doesn't exist yet which is who's going to vote on Election Day and so that's just the reality of pre-election polling I think that there's a lot of optimism that this year might be better partly because some of the mistakes that led to those errors in 2016 for example have been corrected partly because 2022 polling in the midterms was some of the most accurate we've seen in decades but we're gonna have to wait and see just how accurate it is okay so let's talk about where the polls stand right now based on what I've seen every poll we see particularly in those key swing States it's neck and neck I mean sometimes it's less than two half of a percent in many of these cases and the margin of error is like 2 3% so what are we to make of those polls what did that tell us about this election yeah it's really really remarkable I you know looking back even the last few decades it's hard to find another example where this many polls were this close as I mentioned you know the the national level polls first of all those are all also neck and neck uh the national polling average for the times that we track right now has Harris at 49% Trump at 48% that's basically a tie you call that a draw statistically and then you know even ignoring the national level polls because as I mentioned whoever wins the popular vote doesn't necessarily win the election you want to look at those key states where it's really going to determine things and those are also razor thin margins less than a percentage point in almost every swing state uh Georgia the average has him up two uh has Trump up two and Arizona the average has Trump up about two but as you mentioned the the margin of error is around two points as well so you end up with what is essentially a toss up it's really really hard for polls to be very precise uh it's a really useful tool and generally they're actually pretty accurate but they're just not great at these super super close elections uh with getting that kind of precision that I think people wish that they could okay let me ask you a couple of philosophical questions what is the purpose of these polls and who do they serve exactly yeah I get asked that a lot honestly and I totally understand the frustration especially in an election that that is this close where they're not really going to be able to give you the answer like you need to understand that with the numbers where they are if nothing changes between now and election day nobody can be surprised with either candidate winning and winning by a lot this is like a couple points away from one or the other winning handily uh you know so this isn't like it's necessarily even going to be a close election once we get to election day the thing about polling is that my defense of it is if we didn't have polls we would just be relying on everything else so The Vibes and what the campaigns have to say and what people are saying on Twitter and that to me seems so so much worse than actually getting a measure of what the electorate is saying what the electorate is telling us is that it's a really close race um that it could go to either candidate and it just shows the importance of showing up on Election Day Casting your ballot so that your voice is heard and you're contributing to the ultimate decision what if it does the opposite though Kaye what if polls are actually doing a disservice in the sense that people let's say in an instance think oh Donald Trump's absolutely going to win and so then Democrats be like okay well what's the point of coming out or Republicans feel like well he's going to win no matter what I just wonder for the actual voters if it does anything for the candidates and for the parties it makes sense because it's information gathering but I wonder if it actually muddies the waters for voters yeah and you know I do think that part of that is is not so much the polling as it is how we in the media sometimes use the polling I think sometimes there can be too much focus on especially those Topline horse race numbers which as you said can maybe make people feel anxious and and confused about what's happening really there's a lot more valuable information kind of further down in these polls when they're asking voters about what they care about talking about the issues that are most top of mind for them that's really valuable information for elected officials to know what voters care about it's like one of the few direct lines in democracy that voters have to tell their elected officials what matters to them and what they want to see action on that's really valuable stuff and I would urge readers and and people consuming these polls to maybe consider the the coverage that focuses more on that and try not to get too caught up in the horse race stuff you know the last few years the last few election Cycles I feel like there's been increasing focus on the polls uh it's sort of this you know Sports ification of politics where people want to know how their team's going to do and especially in a race this close like sometimes it helps to just kind of take a breather and take a step back from those dayby day you know horse race updates well you're not in that position you got to be watching all this stuff so tell me in the next 2 and a half weeks as you're monitoring these polls and Reporting on them what's going to be your key Focus yeah I mean one of the things I'm going to be watching on is if there is any movement especially if we get something late in the election cycle which we've seen before you know and in 2016 the the email uh investigation letter from James Comey that came very close to election day and like the oober surprise element you mean exactly yeah there could definitely still be time for an October surprise so I'll be watching for that I'm also interested in seeing those those questions about the issues and I'm really curious what's going to compel people to come out and vote what's motivating them and how different uh voting groups are going to turn out you know what is it that gets somebody to The Ballot Box is it abortion is it immigration is it the economy what's top of mine and and what do people care about that's really interesting to me okay Kaylee Rogers we'll be reading your work and hopefully we'll speak to you again over the course of the next two and a half weeks thank you for your time happy to all right thank you
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