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all right we're down to the home stretch in the US presidential elections the race to the White House between Donald Trump the Republican ticket and kamla Harris the Dem ratic ticket and it is going right down to the wire 2 weeks exactly 2 weeks to the polls who stands where let's take a look at the average of the real clear politics poll that has just come out this is as of 20th October 2024 and the Gap is absolutely at a hair's bread less than 1% separates KLA Harris and Donald Trump KLA Harris at 49.2% and Donald Trump at 48.3 like I said this is less than 1% it's the closest that the average of the real clear polling has been in the last couple of months since Harris's candidature was formally announced at the Democratic Convention so this is literally on a knife's edge this could go either way just to put that into perspective the margin of error in most polls in the US is plus or minus 3% in this case it is less than 1% so it could go either way it could be a Harris presidency or it could be a trump presidency but more importantly it could also be Harris haris winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College the problem for Harris is that her Gap her lead has actually been narrowing when compared to where it was a month ago or two months ago let's start from August this was a couple of weeks after Joe Biden withdrew Joe Biden withdrew on the 21st of July and then Harris sort of uh racked up the delegates the Democratic delegates the last time Trump LED in this tracker of the real clear politics tracker from August to now was on the 4th of August it was a slender lead that Trump had less than half a percentage Point Trump at 47.3 and KLA Harris at 46.9 this was in the first week of August then you cut to the third week of August right after the Democratic National Convention and then kamla Harris had what they call a convention bump so she went into the lead with a gain of 1.5 percentage points Trump at 46.9 and uh kamla Harris at 48.4 this was on the 22nd of August just the day after the convention concluded which gave her a what is to what is generally known as a traditional postc convention bump then that lead of one a half points further increased all through the last week of August going all the way up to the ABC News debate the only presidential debate in this election cycle that happened on the 10th of September the biggest lead that kamla Harris has had in these last couple of months is on the 17th of September she clocked 49.3% and Trump had 47.3% the gap of 2 percentage points exactly a week after the ABC News debate so this is the highest lead that kamla Harris has had in the last couple of months at 49.3 and 47.3 the problem look at the two worms from about the first week of October or so the Trump worm has been going up the red worm whereas the Harris worm has been pretty much flat so what that means is Trump is the one who's coming from behind he's the candidate who is seemingly having momentum behind him he's got tailwind and he's catching up and narrowing the Gap that is not a place where you want to be as a Democratic candidate where where Harris's uh sort of polling numbers are flattened out around that 49.3% Mark whereas Trump is catching up and he's narrowing the Gap he has no plan for how he would address the needs of the American people he is only focused on himself now worked for 15 minutes more than Kamala okay she she never worked here all right so Trump is closing on the Gap but he's not crossed kamla Harris yet and yet today two weeks off from the polls why is that bad news for Harris and good news for Trump because relatively speaking if you were to look at Harris where she is right now on the 20th of October 2 weeks out from the polls you compare that to the previous three Democratic candidates all the way from Barack Obama in 2012 on the last or the penultimate week two weeks leading up to the last two weeks leading up to the vote uh Barack Obama was leading by 2 and a half percentage points against Mitt Romney who was the Republican nominee that year Hillary Clinton in the very first year that Donald Trump ran in 2016 she had a lead of 6 and a half points 6 and 1 half points in the third week of October leading up to the election in the first week of November and yet Hillary Clinton lost the election you know why she lost the election she won the popular vote she won by plus three percentage in the popular vote but the Electoral College she lost she lost the critical Battleground states of Michigan Wisconsin Pennsylvania despite having a 6 and a half percentage lead in the third week of October Joe Biden on the other hand in the 2020 election his lead was even bigger he had an 8 and a half point lead to Donald Trump in 2020 and that translated when he had such a massive lead of 8.6% that translated into a big Electoral College win in fact Biden got more than 300 electoral college votes he won the critical Battleground states of Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania now this is why this is worrying for kamla Harris she is polling far less than three of her Democratic predecessors in the past three election Cycles she is leading by under 1% which means if Hillary Clinton at 62% could not win the electoral college then there is a huge question mark on whether at .9% less than 1% KLA Harris can win the electoral college college now this is one part of the problem the other part of the problem is that Trump's own favorability net favorability ratings as they call it that is actually improved remember in 2016 the first time he fought the election he had a net unfavorability of minus 27 points he's been slowly working on that he's been improving that in 2020 he almost managed to half that from - 27 it came down to-2 points and in this election cycle this is his third election running for president the top job in America at in the 2024 election cycle his net unfavorability has come down to - 9 so from - 27 he's cut it down to a third in the last 8 years so his net unfavorability is just Min -9 which means kamla Harris has a tougher job she's taking on a slightly more popular Trump than he was in 2020 and certainly than what he was in 2016
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